如何看待中国大陆真实的生活状况？
[博讯论坛]
有关中国大陆国民生活水平的话题，在国内外一直争论不休。有人认为真实的中国大陆人的生活，比邻国印度还要艰难的多，如果与西方发达国家相比可谓生活在水深火热之中。也有人认为中国大陆人现在的生活水平并不比欧美差；几乎每个人手里都持有电脑手机，而中国大陆的旅游团更是世界各地到处都是，所到之处购买力都是最强的。一些海外华人和外国游客也对中国大陆豪华的都市建设，四通八达的高速公路，高速铁路还有奢华的娱乐服务设施大加赞赏。尤其是最近，一些海外华人和西方人，他们对中国大陆的看法更存在上述两种截然不同的观点。因为中国大陆陆目前物价飞涨，连政府都不得不承认，中国大陆的通货膨胀已经相当严重；但有些人说，中国大陆的物价一点也不贵，在餐馆吃饭才花了十几元；相反中国大陆的发展超出人们想象，到处都建设得非常漂亮；……
上述观点差距之大难以调和。那么这是什么原因造成，哪一种是真实的？！
著名旅美经济学家、中国问题专家程晓农说，若要得出对一个社会，一个国家以及它的经济做出一个整体性的判断，不能靠蜻蜓点水的一两个人的观察来做判断。而要从社会调查的角度去分析。科学的调查通常强调，要对整个社会的不同阶层，不同地区都要做普遍的观察，另外观察者本人不能带有先入为主的任何意见。必须把个人的一些偏好剔出了以后问题，才可能获得一些比较客观的结论，否则就可能带有主观的偏见。若从这个角度去看，旅游者或外国人到中国大陆观光光的人，他们的看法通常是不具有代表性的，因为这些看法往往只是某一个人在某一个时点对某一个局部的一点观察，有多大代表性是值得怀疑的。
另一方面，还要考虑调查者或者观察者本人有没有价值倾向性。如果有价值倾向性，比如，这个人有先入为主的认为，中国大陆经济好或者不好，有偏见也会产生对问题观察的一种潜意识的诱导。举一个最简单的例子：外国观察者到中国大陆旅游，他们去的地方基本上是宾馆、酒吧，然后是旅游场所，这些地方通常服务比较好点，设施条件比较完善。如果以为这些地方代表中国大陆，那么这显然是片面的。同样的，中国大陆人回国观察也有这个问题，因为海外回国的大部分来自于城市，又由于他们的很多人的家庭背景是在中国大陆本身属于中上阶层，所以如果他回国接触交往的都是同一阶层的人，那么他得出的结论就可能只不过是这个阶层的观感，也同样不具备代表性。清华大学一个很著名的社会学者叫孙立平，他在几年前曾经讲过这样一段话，他说就是以北京为中心，往外走五十公里，我们就能看到三个世界。第一世界、第二世界、第三世界。所谓第一世界指的是，北京的象复兴门一带的金融街，还有长安街的办公楼，这里看上去好像是已经达到了现代国家的城市的水准了。建筑豪华、街道整洁，走在街上的人也都西装革履。看起来和西方国家没多大区别。到中关村的时候，情况就又变化了，变成第二世界了。这里既有高科技公司，但是也有大量打工的人，街道就比较乱，人也很杂。如果再往西走十几公里，到北京的石景山区，那么看到的是以首钢原来的工人居住区为主要群体的没落的工人住宅区，环境和1990年代没有多大差别；如果再往外走30公里，就到了北京西南郊的房山，房山县靠山区的那些村庄，仍然和1980年代的农村差不了多少，非常贫困。所以，这个时候就会发现，只不过是从北京的市中心往外走50公里，就已经看到三个世界。那么哪一个代表中国大陆呢？毫无疑问这三块都代表中国大陆，而且都是北京市的范围。很可惜的是，无论是从海外回去的华人，还是西方的旅游者，没有人有兴趣离开城市跑到偏远的乡村去，因为那不是旅游的目标，那是社会调查的任务。但是，恰恰是在这个市中心以外的地区居住着中国大陆95%以上的人口。那里的情况才更准确的反映中国大陆的现实。所以，这个时候就提出一个问题，当一个人谈到他的观感的时候忽悠需要识别。这种观感是来自于什么阶层的观察者，来自于对什么地区的观察，有没有代表性。可以讲，外国旅游者的观察没有代表性。中国大陆人特别是来自中低阶层的老百姓通常不会认同这些外国旅游者对中国大陆的这种盲目的赞扬。原因是他们根本不了解大都市旅游区之外的情况。
最近，新浪网采访了四位在北京工作的外国记者，其中有人往来中国大陆将近20年，其中一位德国记者说，西方国家往往强调服务，当他来到中国大陆他才发现中国大陆才是真正的服务型社会，所到之处不仅能享受到各种各样的服务，价格也很便宜，回到德国反而不适应。事实上，世界各国的媒体在北京都派有记者，从这些记者发回本国媒体的报道，对中国大陆的报道好像从来没有使用过这样的话语。也就是说，为西方媒体工作的记者发回本国的报道并没有这样的观感。这几位记者其实是在替中国大陆官方的喉舌在工作，喉舌的任务本身，就是粉饰太平；这一点所有的中国大陆人都很清楚。所以，新浪网采访的这四个人的看法并不能代表在中国大陆的外国记者的看法。
举两个客观的事情，来做为一个判断的标准。
最近在中国大陆讨论很热烈的关于美国大使馆在北京设立一个空气污染程度监测器。这个监测器监测的结果是，北京市的空气污染程度按照世界卫生组织的标准，经常达到所谓不适合户外活动，甚至达到所谓的相当危险的状态。因为按照世界卫生组织的标准，美国大使馆使用的这种其它国家都采用的仪器，它的读数素如果超过25－30基本上就开始突破了世界卫生组织规定的所谓空气正常标准，进入不正常状态了。美国大使馆过去一个多星期，每天、每小时的监测数据监测的空气污染程度达到300多。300多按照世界卫生组织的标准就是对人身体体有害了。美国大使馆设置这个设备的目的，是为了用这个设备的数据提醒在北京的外国人，这里的空气状况是什么样，请各位做好自我保护。这是一种在京外国人的服务。当然，中国大陆政府很不喜欢这种服务。因为这各服务数据的提供出了中国大陆政府的洋相。因为中国大陆政府宣称世界卫生组织标准看待的所谓的有害的环境，在中国大陆政府的标准里头叫做“轻度污染”。但纽约和华盛顿空气，用同样的仪器同样的标准，是基本上在世界卫生组织讲的在25个读数上下波动，纽约才属于有轻度污染的城市。但中国大陆超出这个标准15倍。对外国人而言，如果他们适应了本国的健康的空气环境，到了北京生活，会觉得这是一种令人非常享受的环境吗？！所以，如果外国人对中国大陆空气污染没有特殊的不满，美国大使馆也没有必要设置这个仪器了。
此外，在美国大使馆的网站上看到一个通知，这个通知正好是针对说中国大陆的“服务很好”|的讽刺。就是说在北京三里屯的一个酒吧，连续接到了美国公民的报告，说受到了中国大陆人的骚扰和羞辱，因此美国大使馆建议在北京的美国人没有事的话不要再去那几个酒吧，同样的希望他们晚上出去的时候尽量的注意安全。这个公告本身实际上也是提醒大家，就是在北京并不是一个让外国人感到十分满意的地方。否则，美国大使馆不需要发这样的公告。美国大使馆的公告，并没有特别的针对性，只是客观的叙述事实。这个公告也说明个问题，即有人也许觉得这个酒吧不错，认为这就代表了中国大陆。那么，如果从美国大使馆公布的那几个酒吧情况来看，也同样是中国大陆的一块。所以，无论是哪种酒吧都不能简单的说它能代表整个中国大陆。也至少说明，只看一、两个酒吧，一两个餐馆，一两个饭店，几个旅游场所是看不出中国大陆的整体真相来的。需要去了解不同城市，不同地区，城市、乡村、富裕地区、贫困地区，偏远地区、沿海地区，到这些地方做了随机抽样的调查之后，用客观的标准去衡量，然后才可能得出一个比较整体的一个对中国大陆的判断。
当然，现在在互联网时代，还有一个很简单的办法。那就是看中国大陆上网的年轻一代他们在网上说什么。如果中国大陆人的大部分的观感都是和外国游客和回国观光华人旅游者相似的话，那么在互联网上就应该看到有大批的人对中国大陆今天的现状赞美不已、赞不绝口。但事实情况正好相反，中国大陆政府现在正在全力以赴管制微博，管制互联网；目的就是要删除所有的批评。之所以会出现这样政府强烈的对互联网的干预，原因就是互联网上存在着大量的对现状不满的言论。这些言论是随机的来自于全国各地不同地方的人。他们的言论在相当程度上也是一个指标：为什么在西方少数旅游者眼里都看起来十分繁荣发达、又和谐美好的中国大陆，会有那么多的中国大陆人天天在互联网上发表他们对现状的不满。
到底谁更了解中国大陆？是生活在中国大陆城乡各地的人更了解呢还是在旅游区里在外宾居住的宾馆里头、酒吧里头转来转去的外国人更了解中国大陆？人们自己判断。
至于怎么看今天中国大陆人真实的生活状况，先举一些国家统计局公布的数据。这些数据应该说比较权威。
用国家统计局2007年公布的全国农村人均消费支出的数据做了个计算，发现2007年的时候，全国农村人均每天的消费支出大概相当于8块人民币，按当时的物价折合美元大概是1.1几美元。这意味着这些人生活在联合国和世界银行界定的贫困线之下。早在2005年的时候，世界银行公布的世界范围内的贫困线标准就是每天1.25美元。也就是说，到了2007年，中国大陆全国农村平均生活水平仍然在全世界的贫困线之下。一般人都认为世界上的贫困国家、贫困人口都集中在非洲和拉丁美洲。但实际上，最大的贫困人口就在中国大陆。
当看到国家统计局公布的这个数据表明，8亿农村人口平均生活水平还在全世界范围内贫困线之下的时候，就大概可以得出一个结论，中国大陆人口的60％－70％生活在贫困线以下。这一点是国家统计局数据本身提供的。把这一批农村人口排除，中国大陆城市里大概还有两亿左右的所谓白领；这里包括北京讲的所谓议族，一个月一、两千块钱，租不起房子，要几个人合租一间，生活非常艰苦，到了周末能吃一碗牛肉面改善一下就心满意足。这就是几十万长期在北京耗着，既找不到像样的工作稳定的收入，又没办法回到农村家乡的大学毕业生。白领中，还包括一些收入不错的白领中的中上阶层。那么，这些白领现在的生活状况如何？按大陆官方宣传的说法，中国大陆早就进入了白领阶层，人数不断扩大，中产阶级占社会的多数。但是去互联网上去看，中国官媒如“三联生活周刊”“了望周刊”，在过去几年中，有过多次关于大陆城市白领生活情况的调查。虽然这种调查不具有充分的、普遍的代表性，只是选择性的采访了一些人，但从采访和报道当可以看出来，现在白领的青年人，有相当一部分人现在生活压力非常大，即便月薪在万把块钱，很多人也是“月光族”，到月底就花光了。这里面包括很艰难的共住一处房子，然后每天的交通费，上班要在外面吃饭，然后子女的教育费等等。所以当今中国大陆，对很多人来说生活压力很重。尤其是在通货膨胀之后，现在这些人生活水平在下降，很多人已经表示他们不能够再经常去买衣服，很多人要精打细算，甚至到淘宝网上去找一点便宜的东西。在外面吃饭的时候，不敢再去吃像样一点的午餐，而且是每天买一个十块钱的盒饭应付，早上吃一、两个包子就拉倒了。从这种情况来看，中国大陆的白领阶层现在生活压力也非常重。不久前还有一个报道，是关于中国大陆一个白领阶层家庭的。如果他们生一个孩子，那么，作为父母他们要为这个孩子准备多少钱；分析的结论是：一个城市的白领家庭，如果现在生一个孩子要把他抚养到大学毕业，这对父母要准备46万。也就是说对很多家庭来说，要不吃不喝好多年。对他们来说生活是很艰难的，虽然并不贫困，但是也决不宽裕。所以，从这种情况来看，中国大陆8亿的普通老百姓生活是很贫困的，白领并不贫困，但生活也并不宽裕。
城市里，另外还有两亿左右的由于下岗、退休的人，现在工资收入水平很低的、或者退休金水平很低的中老年人，他们现在的生活状况是很艰苦。比如，如果是夫妻两个都是退休的工人，正常退休的话现在一个月也就是一千几百块钱。在目前物价状况下，要存一点钱是很不容易的。另外，中国大陆现在还存在很普遍的一个社会现象叫做啃老族，就是很多中老年人他们的子女由于种种原因找不到工作或者不愿意找工作而在家里啃老，啃他们的父母。所以，父母虽然只有那么一点微博的退休金，还要供养下一代甚至孙辈。这是一个没有穷尽的历程。所以，对于很多家庭来说他们看不到未来的。
农村的大部分人口，城市的两亿人口的中低收入家庭，加上寄生在这个家庭里头的啃老族，再加上两亿白领，中国大陆这个社会大部分状况，就基本就曝光了。
中国大陆互联网上有很多人在博客里或者在微博上每天有大量的言论，这些言论都反映一点，就是大家对现状非常不满。对现状的不满还包含两层，一层是对现在的现状不满，还有一层是对未来的担忧。也就是说，现状已经如此艰难了，未来是不是会更加糟糕，他们今后能不能维持现在的这个生活水平，很多人是非常担心。这也是为什么中国大陆政府拼命的控制互联网根源。
全世界没有几个国家的政府每天在监控微博，设定了大量的所谓敏感词。这种现象本身说明一个问题，就是民怨很深。中国大陆的老百姓多数人对现状其实是相当不满的。而这个不满的背后就说明，中国大陆多数老百姓生活状况远不是西方一些媒体和一些旅游者所以为的那样十分美好。
中国问题专家程晓农根据中国国家统计局2007年公布的全国农村人均消费支出数据分析指出，中国大陆人口的70％生活在全世界的贫困线以下，他们每天的消费支出还不到世界银行公布的最低贫困线标准，即每天1.25美元。但尽管中国大陆普通百姓的生活水平在世界上是很低的，可中国大陆官僚特权们的生活水平却相当高。据2010年初大陆官方做的《全国地方党政部门、国家机关公职人员薪酬和家庭财产调查报告》披露：中国大陆厅级以上官员的年收入是当地城市人均收入的8-25倍，是当地农民年均收入的25-85倍。
但是近些年来，这批官僚特权们开始大量移民海外，根据胡润联合中国大陆银行私人银行发布的《2011中国大陆私人财富管理白皮书》报告显示，中国大陆14%的千万富豪目前已移民或者在申请移民当中，还有近一半在考虑移民。很多老百姓不解，这些富人有着巨额的财富，过着奢华的、常人无法想象和企及的生活，为什么他们还要纷纷出国移民。
凤凰播报
2011-11-29
Shiho Fukada for The New York Times
Hu Zhicheng, a naturalized American citizen, was jailed in China in a business dispute.
By ANDREW JACOBS
Published: November 26, 2011
“I saw how polluted the air was here, and thought I could make a difference,” said Mr. Hu, a naturalized American citizen who has a doctorate in engineering.
Now it seems he cannot leave.
The last three times he tried to board an airplane and return to his family in Los Angeles, Mr. Hu, 49, was turned away by Chinese border agents who claimed that he was a wanted man.
The problem is, he cannot find out exactly who wants him and why.
Mr. Hu, an inventor trained at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with 48 patents and a number of prestigious science awards to his name, was jailed for a year and a half starting in 2008 after a former business associate accused him of commercial theft. The charges were so spurious that prosecutors withdrew the case — a rare gesture in China’s top-down legal system.
But since his release 19 months ago, Mr. Hu’s life has been in limbo and his family has grown increasingly frantic. He writes to powerful Communist Party officials who he imagines might control his fate. A coterie of influential friends and colleagues has been lobbying on his behalf. And this month, his daughter, a sophomore at the University of California, Berkeley, began a petition campaign that has garnered more than 50,000 signatures.
Richard Buangan, a spokesman for the United States Embassy in Beijing, said that American diplomats had had little success in pressing his case with Chinese officials. “No authority has been cooperative with our request for information on the restrictions that block his departure from China,” he said.
Mr. Hu’s predicament highlights the potential perils of doing business in China, where commercial disputes can easily become criminal matters, especially when the politically well-connected use the country’s malleable legal system to bludgeon rivals. Most worrisome, legal experts say, are the country’s vague commercial secrets laws that state-owned enterprises — the companies that dominate China’s economy — sometimes wield to protect information related to production, procurement, mergers and strategic planning.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that overseas Chinese are more vulnerable to such abuses than their non-Chinese compatriots. Last year, Stern Hu, a Chinese-Australian mining executive, was detained shortly after a deal between his company, Rio Tinto, and the state-owned Aluminum Corporation of China fell through. Convicted of stealing trade secrets and bribery, Mr. Hu was sentenced to 10 years in prison after a largely closed trial.
Xue Feng, a Chinese-American geologist who is serving eight years in prison on similar charges, said he was tortured during his interrogation. His supporters, including American diplomats, insist that the oil and gas industry data he sold was publicly available. In 2008, the authorities executed Wo Weihan, a Chinese biomedical researcher who had returned from Europe to start a medical supply company in Beijing. Tried in secret, Mr. Wo was accused of espionage, although the details of his crimes were never disclosed.
Even as official policies seek to lure Chinese-born inventors, academics and entrepreneurs with housing perks and financial incentives, lingering anti-Western xenophobia nurtured during the Mao years sometimes taints them as unpatriotic for having left. “It’s kind of reverse racism,” said John Kamm, executive director of Dui Hua, an American human rights group that frequently advocates on behalf of detained foreign nationals in China. “If you’re ethnic Chinese with a foreign passport, you’re really not considered a foreigner.”
Mr. Hu, whose long résumé includes stints as a researcher in Japan and more than a decade working for an American designer of catalytic converters, the Engelhard Corporation, would seem to be the ideal returnee.
In 2006, when he took a job as chief scientist for Wuxi Weifu Environmental Catalysts, a company in eastern Jiangsu Province, he also brought his wife and their two American-born children, in part, he says, because he wanted them to become steeped in Chinese language and culture.
His return coincided with a surge in domestic car production and government-led efforts to reduce tailpipe emissions. The company prospered, and so did Mr. Hu, who eventually became Wuxi Weifu’s president. It now provides catalytic converters for half of all Chinese-made cars.
Mr. Hu’s troubles began after his company refused to buy components from the Hysci Specialty Materials Company, which is based in Tianjin and once supplied Engelhard.
According to Mr. Hu and his lawyers, Hysci would not take no for an answer. They say Hysci’s well-connected chief executive, Dou Shihua, sent Tianjin public security agents to Wuxi Weifu to pressure Mr. Hu to change his mind.
The police raised allegations of stolen trade secrets but also suggested that the accusations would evaporate if the two companies did business together. Mr. Hu would not budge. “We have a system of quality control, and even one word from me could not change that,” he said.
In the end, the veiled threats gave way to an arrest, and Mr. Hu was put in a jail in Tianjin.
The patent infringement case that prosecutors eventually built against him cited technology that has been publicly available in the United States for decades, according to several scientists who rallied to his defense.
But even after prosecutors withdrew the case and Mr. Hu was freed, he found his return home blocked by immigration officials who claimed that he was still wanted by the Tianjin police. Each time he or his lawyer contacted the authorities there, however, they were told there were no such restrictions.
One of his lawyers, Wang Shou, said he believed that Mr. Dou, Hysci’s chief executive, was continuing to use his influence to exact revenge or get a deal yet.
Reached by telephone, a sales executive at Hysci refused to comment on the case. The Tianjin Public Security Bureau hung up before answering questions about Mr. Hu.
His family does not know what else to do. Although his daughter visited last summer, Mr. Hu’s wife and 16-year-old son are reluctant to come here, saying they fear they, too, could be prevented from leaving.
“I worry about my husband every hour of every day,” his wife, Hong Li, who is also an engineer, said by telephone from Los Angeles. “I don’t want my son to grow up without a father.”
The emotional anguish suffered by Mr. Hu has been compounded by pain from a herniated disc that worsened during the 17 months he slept on the floor of his jail cell.
Earlier this month, at a chemical engineering conference on the outskirts of Beijing, he lectured about ways to reduce emissions from heavy trucks in China.
As the conference wound down and his American colleagues headed to the airport, he made a joke about escaping across the border.
“If I could only invent something that would make me invisible,” he said.
Now it seems he cannot leave.
The last three times he tried to board an airplane and return to his family in Los Angeles, Mr. Hu, 49, was turned away by Chinese border agents who claimed that he was a wanted man.
The problem is, he cannot find out exactly who wants him and why.
Mr. Hu, an inventor trained at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with 48 patents and a number of prestigious science awards to his name, was jailed for a year and a half starting in 2008 after a former business associate accused him of commercial theft. The charges were so spurious that prosecutors withdrew the case — a rare gesture in China’s top-down legal system.
But since his release 19 months ago, Mr. Hu’s life has been in limbo and his family has grown increasingly frantic. He writes to powerful Communist Party officials who he imagines might control his fate. A coterie of influential friends and colleagues has been lobbying on his behalf. And this month, his daughter, a sophomore at the University of California, Berkeley, began a petition campaign that has garnered more than 50,000 signatures.
Richard Buangan, a spokesman for the United States Embassy in Beijing, said that American diplomats had had little success in pressing his case with Chinese officials. “No authority has been cooperative with our request for information on the restrictions that block his departure from China,” he said.
Mr. Hu’s predicament highlights the potential perils of doing business in China, where commercial disputes can easily become criminal matters, especially when the politically well-connected use the country’s malleable legal system to bludgeon rivals. Most worrisome, legal experts say, are the country’s vague commercial secrets laws that state-owned enterprises — the companies that dominate China’s economy — sometimes wield to protect information related to production, procurement, mergers and strategic planning.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that overseas Chinese are more vulnerable to such abuses than their non-Chinese compatriots. Last year, Stern Hu, a Chinese-Australian mining executive, was detained shortly after a deal between his company, Rio Tinto, and the state-owned Aluminum Corporation of China fell through. Convicted of stealing trade secrets and bribery, Mr. Hu was sentenced to 10 years in prison after a largely closed trial.
Xue Feng, a Chinese-American geologist who is serving eight years in prison on similar charges, said he was tortured during his interrogation. His supporters, including American diplomats, insist that the oil and gas industry data he sold was publicly available. In 2008, the authorities executed Wo Weihan, a Chinese biomedical researcher who had returned from Europe to start a medical supply company in Beijing. Tried in secret, Mr. Wo was accused of espionage, although the details of his crimes were never disclosed.
Even as official policies seek to lure Chinese-born inventors, academics and entrepreneurs with housing perks and financial incentives, lingering anti-Western xenophobia nurtured during the Mao years sometimes taints them as unpatriotic for having left. “It’s kind of reverse racism,” said John Kamm, executive director of Dui Hua, an American human rights group that frequently advocates on behalf of detained foreign nationals in China. “If you’re ethnic Chinese with a foreign passport, you’re really not considered a foreigner.”
Mr. Hu, whose long résumé includes stints as a researcher in Japan and more than a decade working for an American designer of catalytic converters, the Engelhard Corporation, would seem to be the ideal returnee.
In 2006, when he took a job as chief scientist for Wuxi Weifu Environmental Catalysts, a company in eastern Jiangsu Province, he also brought his wife and their two American-born children, in part, he says, because he wanted them to become steeped in Chinese language and culture.
His return coincided with a surge in domestic car production and government-led efforts to reduce tailpipe emissions. The company prospered, and so did Mr. Hu, who eventually became Wuxi Weifu’s president. It now provides catalytic converters for half of all Chinese-made cars.
Mr. Hu’s troubles began after his company refused to buy components from the Hysci Specialty Materials Company, which is based in Tianjin and once supplied Engelhard.
According to Mr. Hu and his lawyers, Hysci would not take no for an answer. They say Hysci’s well-connected chief executive, Dou Shihua, sent Tianjin public security agents to Wuxi Weifu to pressure Mr. Hu to change his mind.
The police raised allegations of stolen trade secrets but also suggested that the accusations would evaporate if the two companies did business together. Mr. Hu would not budge. “We have a system of quality control, and even one word from me could not change that,” he said.
In the end, the veiled threats gave way to an arrest, and Mr. Hu was put in a jail in Tianjin.
The patent infringement case that prosecutors eventually built against him cited technology that has been publicly available in the United States for decades, according to several scientists who rallied to his defense.
But even after prosecutors withdrew the case and Mr. Hu was freed, he found his return home blocked by immigration officials who claimed that he was still wanted by the Tianjin police. Each time he or his lawyer contacted the authorities there, however, they were told there were no such restrictions.
One of his lawyers, Wang Shou, said he believed that Mr. Dou, Hysci’s chief executive, was continuing to use his influence to exact revenge or get a deal yet.
Reached by telephone, a sales executive at Hysci refused to comment on the case. The Tianjin Public Security Bureau hung up before answering questions about Mr. Hu.
His family does not know what else to do. Although his daughter visited last summer, Mr. Hu’s wife and 16-year-old son are reluctant to come here, saying they fear they, too, could be prevented from leaving.
“I worry about my husband every hour of every day,” his wife, Hong Li, who is also an engineer, said by telephone from Los Angeles. “I don’t want my son to grow up without a father.”
The emotional anguish suffered by Mr. Hu has been compounded by pain from a herniated disc that worsened during the 17 months he slept on the floor of his jail cell.
Earlier this month, at a chemical engineering conference on the outskirts of Beijing, he lectured about ways to reduce emissions from heavy trucks in China.
As the conference wound down and his American colleagues headed to the airport, he made a joke about escaping across the border.
“If I could only invent something that would make me invisible,” he said.
